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What defines a propagated outbreak?

Epidemic curve has no peaks

Epidemic curve rises and stays elevated

Epidemic curve with successive peaks

A propagated outbreak is characterized by the presence of successive peaks in the epidemic curve, which indicates that the disease is spreading from person to person. Each peak corresponds to new cases that arise as the infection transmits through a population over time. This pattern shows a wave-like progression of infections, often due to secondary cases developing from the initial infected individuals. In contrast, an epidemic curve with no peaks would suggest a different type of outbreak or that the disease is not propagating through the population. An epidemic curve that rises and stays elevated suggests a constant exposure or environmental source (like a common-source outbreak) where cases accumulate rather than propagate. Uniform spread across a population would not show the variations that define a propagated outbreak, as it implies that the disease is affecting all individuals equally without any herd immunity or social dynamics at play. The essence of a propagated outbreak lies in its ability to show cumulative, interconnected transmission over time, reflected in the shape of its epidemic curve.

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Uniform spread across a population

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